Showing posts with label Economic News. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economic News. Show all posts

Monday, June 20, 2011

Is the U.S. like Greece?


@CNNMoney June 19, 2011: 11:15 AM ET
Is the U.S. like Greece?Demonstrators stand in front of Greek Parliament in Athens during a protest on Wednesday against plans for new austerity measures
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Deficit hawks often cite Greece's debt nightmare as a cautionary tale for the United States.
But is the United States really like Greece?
The differences between the countries, after all, give the United States some built-in advantages when it comes to managing its debt.
The U.S. economy? Gargantuan. Greece's economy? Tiny.
Plus, the United States' earning capacity is greater since it has a more diverse economy than Greece does, said Barry Anderson, who used to run a budgeting and public expenditures division at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

The pain of Greece's crisis

There are also big differences in the countries' currencies.
The dollar is the world's reserve currency and is managed by a single government.
The euro, by contrast, is used by 17 sovereign countries. Therefore, Greece's monetary policy is set not according to Greece's needs but by the needs of stronger economies -- especially Germany -- that prefer higher interest rates as a bulwark against inflation.(See correction below.)
The OECD, meanwhile, estimates that U.S. net debt will reach 75% of the country's economy this year. That number includes federal, state and local debt but excludes debt owed to government trust funds such as Social Security.
Greece's debt, by contrast, will be around 125%.
So what's the concern for the United States exactly?
"The real fundamental similarity is trend. Both [countries' fiscal situations] are bad and getting worse," Anderson said.
That's because both the United States and Greece have aging populations and mature economies that aren't likely to grow as much as they have in the past.
Simply assuming that the United States will remain forever immune from the perils of too much debt is not a winning strategy, deficit hawks warn.
Of course, that's a hard case to make when investors embrace Treasuries every time they get spooked by turmoil in Europe. Events in Greece in recent days have driven the 10-year Treasury yield below 3%.
In other words, the United States continues to get the benefit of being a "safe haven" compared to the rest of the world.
But experts believe that investors won't always give Americans the benefit of the doubt.
"The markets do react late, but when they react they react pretty sharply," said Carlos Cottarelli, director of fiscal affairs at the International Monetary Fund, during a Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget conference this week.
A little over a year ago, investors' fears that Greece would ever default were considerably lower than they are today. So it's not surprising that the yield on 10-year Greek bonds is now pushing 18%, up from 6% at the start of 2010, according to Bloomberg markets data.
But even if U.S. rates don't rise soon -- and some say they won't because investors fear slower economic growth -- that doesn't mean markets can't find other ways to hurt the United States, Anderson said.
Investors might choose to punish the dollar if they start to believe Congress doesn't have the political will to do what's required to put the U.S. budget on a more sustainable track.
And a substantially weaker dollar would have all sorts of negative repercussions, including a possible credit downgrade from ratings agencies, said Michael Pond, managing director of fixed income strategy at Barclays Capital, at the CRFB conference.
The bottom line: The U.S. is not Greece in many ways. But it's also not immune from the punishing effects of debt.
-- Fortune.com's Colin Barr contributed to this report.
Correction: The original version of this article incorrectly stated the number of countries that use the euro. To top of page

Jerry Brown vetoes California budget


@CNNMoney June 16, 2011: 6:45 PM ET
California Governor Jerry Brown vetoes the budget passed by lawmakers.California Governor Jerry Brown vetoes the budget passed by lawmakers.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- California Governor Jerry Brown vetoed Thursday the budget passed by state lawmakers the day before that relied on spending cuts, fund transfers and one-time revenue boosts.
Brown, who has promised for months that he would present Californians with a gimmick-free budget that solves the state's $26 billion deficit with a combination of tax extensions and spending cuts, said the legislators' budget was not a balanced solution.
"It continues big deficits for years to come and adds billions of dollars of new debt. It also contains legally questionable maneuvers, costly borrowing and unrealistic savings," he said. "We can -- and must -- do better."
In vetoing the budget, the governor, a Democrat, once again lashed out at Republican lawmakers. He called on them to put his plan to extend personal income and sales tax hikes on the ballot.
"If they continue to obstruct a vote, we will be forced to pursue deeper and more destructive cuts to schools and public safety -- a tragedy for which Republicans will bear full responsibility," Brown said.
Republicans, on the other hand, blasted their Democrats counterparts for passing an "irresponsible budget" on Wednesday and Brown for halting negotiations in March. Republicans have said they would let voters have their say on the tax extension if the governor would agree to certain reforms.
"Californians deserve a budget that stands the test of time, and that requires the real reforms that they are demanding -- meaningful pension reform, a spending limit and business-regulation relief for job creation," said Senate Republican Leader Bob Dutton.
The rejection dismayed Democratic lawmakers who had raced Wednesday to pass a budget that did not include the tax extensions. By doing so, they also sought to meet a deadline that would allow them to continue getting paid. California voters last year required that legislators approve a balanced budget by June 15 or forfeit their pay.
While the ballot measure did not say the governor had to approve that budget, the state controller is reviewing whether the budget passed Wednesday meets the state constitution's requirement.
Democratic legislative leaders called on Brown to either secure the Republican votes needed to put the tax extensions on the ballot or to produce a new detailed plan for crafting a balanced budget.
"We are too far down the road for the governor to continue avoiding a specific set of proposals of what he intends to do or wants to be done if he can't gain those Republican votes," said Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg.
Budget talks had essentially been at a standstill until Wednesday, when the Democratic-led state legislature passed a budget that relied on cuts and fiscal sleights-of-hand. Lawmakers only needed a majority to approve it, thanks to a ballot measure voters approved last year.

California's $10.8 billion budget battle

The budget would have sent $3 billion less to schools and delayed the repayment of $744 million that the state borrowed from school districts. It also depended on tax revenues coming in higher than originally forecast, as they have been doing.
The state's universities would have had another $300 million cut in funding, while the courts would have gotten $150 million less.
The proposal also relied on revenue shifts and one-time maneuvers. For instance, it called for sending some motor vehicle fees to the state general fund, while raising registration fees by $12 to support the state Department of Motor Vehicles. And it took $1 billion from a fund dedicated to early childhood development.
The budget plan would have resurrected the sale of $1.2 billion of public buildings, which Brown called off earlier this year.
It also would have added a quarter percentage point to the local sales tax and extended the sales levy to online retailers, such as Amazon.com (AMZN, Fortune 500). An Internet sales tax would have brought in an estimated $200 million.
The path to a balanced budget has taken many turns since Brown unveiled a plan in January to close the state's massive shortfall by extending temporary personal income and sales taxes passed in 2009 and cutting spending.
Two months later, the legislature approved several measures that closed $14 billion of the gap. Then, the Golden State learned in early May that tax revenues were coming in $2.5 billion higher than forecast.
Brown released a revised budget in mid May that reduced the amount the state needed to raise in taxes and to cut in spending. But Republican lawmakers refused to put the measure on the ballot without securing the spending cap and pension and regulatory reforms. To top of page

Weiner's diversified stock portfolio


@CNNMoney June 16, 2011: 2:44 PM ET
Anthony WeinerRep. Anthony Weiner owns stocks worth between $190,000 and $285,000, according to 2010 disclosure forms.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Anthony Weiner officially resigned as a congressman Thursday after apologizing again for sending lewd photos of himself over the Internet.
But the New York Democrat has a few hundred thousand dollars in assets that he can fall back on, if need be.
Weiner owns a portfolio of 19 stocks worth between $190,000 and $285,000, according to 2010 disclosure forms.
The Weiner portfolio is made up of mostly blue-chip stocks such as 3M (MMM, Fortune 500), Dow Chemical (DOW, Fortune 500), Cisco Systems (CSCO, Fortune 500) and Merck (MRK, Fortune 500). But he also owns shares of more adventurous technology and energy firms, including Micron Technology (MU, Fortune 500) and Rowan Companies (RDC), a drilling services company.
Weiner made a total of eight stock transactions last year, according to the filing. He sold shares of Dow, McGraw-Hill (MHP, Fortune 500), Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500), and Motors Liquidation Co (MTLQQ)., the remnants of the old General Motors.

Congress members' wealth: An inside look

The congressman reported capital gains between $200 and $1,000 on one of those transactions, and interest income in the same range on another.
Meanwhile, Weiner purchased shares of Live Nation (LYV, Fortune 500), Cisco, Corning and the Williams Companies (WMB, Fortune 500), a natural gas producer.
The disclosure forms also showed that Weiner made a charitable donation of $850 related to an appearance he made on "Real Time With Bill Maher" on HBO.
Weiner has been in the spotlight since late May, when a lewd photograph of him became public after it was sent to a woman over the Twitter social networking service.
After initially claiming that his account had been hacked, Weiner eventually admitted that he sent the picture and had engaged in several inappropriate relationships with women he met online. Leaders of both parties, including President Obama, have suggested that he resign.
"Unfortunately, the distraction that I have created" has made it "impossible" to continue his work in Congress, Weiner said at a press conference in Brooklyn, N.Y.
Weiner apologized "for the personal mistakes I have made and for the embarrassment I have caused" to his neighbors, his constituents and his wife.
-- CNN senior congressional correspondent Dana Bash contributed to this report.  To top of page

Barack Obama: Unity president or great divider?


@FortuneMagazine June 17, 2011: 5:54 AM ET
Barack Obama: Unity president or great divider?
FORTUNE -- In February of 2009, with Barack Obama barely a month in office, Newsweek declared "We are all socialists now." The most interesting part: its matter-of-fact tone, asserting that as boomers age and spending grows, Americans were turning, well, French. A bit tongue-in-cheek, maybe, but it's worth noting that, as it turns out, we're not all Euro-socialists. Not even close. The rise in federal spending from 21% to nearly 25% of the economy in just two years has contributed to an angry backlash -- leaving Americans more, not less, divided about government's proper role in our lives.
In the summer of 2004, little-known Illinois Senator Obama first captured the public's imagination with eloquent pleas for national unity. But the fireworks this Fourth of July more closely resemble the old days of democracy when Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, and Alexander Hamilton engaged in down-and-dirty debates over government's reach. As the 2012 election approaches, one camp says Washington is strangling the free-market economy. The camp on the left views Washington as the grand savior from destructive free-market greed. Exactly half of us think government is too big, and 55% think it's always wasteful, says the Pew Research Center. Pew also concludes that Americans are more doctrinaire, more hardened in their views, especially over this question: "Should government do more to help the needy even if it means bigger deficits?"
nina_easton_2010bw.03.jpg
The noise level that accompanies this divide makes it hard to have a sane conversation about how to shape a 21st-century government that most of us can agree on. Take business leaders: Many hate the costs associated with Obama's health care reform and new environmental and banking regulations. But they also say Washington needs to lead the way in rebuilding the nation's infrastructure and tapping energy sources that will stabilize prices -- or American companies will have trouble competing globally.
Likewise, average citizens are rightly shocked by the levels of public debt weighing down the economy -- and their tax-paying children. According to the President's National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform (headed by Democrat Erskine Bowles and Republican Alan Simpson), debt held by the public will outstrip the entire American economy, growing to as much as 185% of GDP by 2035 -- with hundreds of billions of dollars doing nothing but servicing debt. Despite those numbers, conversations about how to reduce the exploding costs of entitlements -- like Medicare -- are swamped by screaming political rhetoric, with little hope of compromise.
The growth of government has also provoked emotionally charged questions of fairness. Liberals believe the wealthy are obligated to pony up more in taxes to cover exploding deficits; conservatives point to the 47% of (not wealthy) people who pay no federal income taxes -- and therefore have no skin in the game -- and the nearly 70% who take more in benefits than they pay in taxes. Public anger over bank bailouts was as much about fairness as the billions of dollars spent. And government mortgage supports that liberals say are the only fair response to the power of big banks actually sprouted the first roots of a Tea Party movement that asked: Why should taxpayers keep people in homes they shouldn't have bought in the first place?
A fairness divide has emerged over public-private employment too. Government jobs pay better (the number of federal jobs paying more than $100,000 rose sharply in 2009 as the private sector collapsed), offer -- on average -- more generous pensions, and have been more insulated from the recession. Anger over this fairness question has exploded on the state level in the form of taxpayers warring with government unions.
Two centuries ago, the charges and countercharges between the camps supporting Jefferson and Madison on one side, and Hamilton on the other, were "brutal" and "monstrous," constituting "unmediated malice," notes historian Jay Winik. That era produced the nation's first political parties. It would be nice to think today's battles will produce something equally useful, but I wouldn't bet the nation's debt on it.  To top of page

Goofy debt ceiling demands

@CNNMoney June 14, 2011: 2:18 PM ET
Debt ceiling: Wingnut demandsGOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich, former Alaskan Gov. Sarah Palin and Sen. Marco Rubio want some rather unrelated demands met before Congress raises the debt ceiling.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- A lot of politicians are weighing in with demands before they'll support raising the debt ceiling. Most of their conditions are related to debt, such as put in place a debt reduction plan or cut spending.
But some conditions can't even claim to be third cousins once removed. Punish union defenders. Drill, baby drill. Revolutionize federal regulation.
Of course, it's not as if totally unrelated measures never make it into formal legislation.
Who can forget the 2009 law designed to crack down on credit card fees? That's the law that also lets national park visitors carry concealed weapons -- no doubt to scare off any credit card executives who might be birding nearby.
Ah, but that digresses from the debt ceiling. Then again, so do the following demands:
Stiff the NLRB: The mostly staff-free GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich said recently he thinks lawmakers should insist in the debt ceiling talks that funding be cut for the National Labor Relations Board.

Debt ceiling: What you need to know

The move would be a smack against NLRB for filing a complaint against Boeing, charging that it broke the law when it moved production of its Dreamliner jet to a South Carolina factory from its union-represented plant in Washington state.
Boeing (BA, Fortune 500) opened the new factory after failing to win a non-strike promise from the International Association of Machinists union, which most recently struck against Boeing for 58 days in 2008.
Overhaul the regulatory structure: Freshman GOP Sen. Marco Rubio proffered a long list of demands that he wants met before he would support a debt ceiling increase.
Writing in a Wall Street Journal opinion article this spring, Rubio's list included several demands pertaining to the budget: entitlement reform, tax reform, discretionary spending cuts and a balanced budget amendment.
Putting aside for the moment that realistically speaking such a list is too large to be accomplished in a few months, Rubio then added an entirely extraneous demand: overhaul the regulatory structure.
Drill for oil in ANWR: Former Alaskan Gov. Sarah Palin, who may or may not run for president, has said she would never vote to raise the debt ceiling because she -- incorrectly -- believes that doing so is just a sop for big spenders.
But if the cap is going to be raised, she said on "Fox News Sunday," politicians "better get something out of it for 'we the people.' "
Palin suggested that Democratic Sen. Mark Begich of Alaska should allow oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge a condition of his vote to raise the debt ceiling.
Begich, who is on record as favoring the opening of ANWR, nevertheless told Politico that Palin is "not really on my radar screen to take advice from." To top of page