EUR/USD Breaks 1.26 Level, Traders Running from Euro

The euro fell below the 1.26 level against the US dollar, reaching lowest level since July 2010. That level was considered to provide strong support to the shared 17-nation currency and, now that the support line is broken, traders are afraid that the currency would spiral down to even lower price.

The members of the European Union are meeting at summit today, but most analysts and traders are pessimistic about the outcome of the meeting. Germany still rejects the implementation of eurobonds even as other countries, including France, support the idea. Herman Van Rompuy, President of the European Council, claimed that the European financial crisis will be discussed at tonight’s meeting in Brussels only “at the very end”.

The Bundesbank stated that a Greek exit “would be significant but manageable within the help of cautious crisis management”. Indeed, some experts say that both the eurozone and Greece would be better if the indebted country will leave the currency union. Others argue that an exit of any country would create a precedent, which may lead to quick dissolution of the euro-area.

EUR/USD sank from 1.2686 to 1.2562 as of 16:48 GMT today. Earlier, some technical analysts claimed that the currency pair should bounce after reaching the 1.26 level, but now it does not look likely. The daily minimum was 1.2544 — the lowest since July 13, 2010. EUR/JPY slid from 101.39 to 99.67, reaching 99.52 intraday — the low not seen since February 1.

Rand Slides to This Year’s Low as CPI Below Expectations

The South African rand slumped against the US dollar today to the lowest level this year as slower-than-expected growth of consumer prices triggered speculations that the nation’s central bank would refrain from raising interest rates.

South Africa’s inflations accelerated to 6.1 percent in April from 6 percent in March. That was the first increase in three months, which is not bad, but still below analysts’ expectations of 6.2 percent growth. The worse-than-expected data prompted speculation that the South African Reserve Bank would keep its key rate at 5.5 percent tomorrow.

USD/ZAR climbed from 8.3180 to 8.4450 as of 14:53 GMT today, while the daily high of 8.4590 was the highest since November 25.

Euro Tanks as Greece Exit Considered More Likely

Euro is tanking today, heading lower as speculation about a Greek exit of the eurozone increases. Indeed, some think that there is a real threat for Greek withdrawal — and that such a withdrawal could prompt a domino effect that includes Spain and Italy later. Worries about what’s next for the eurozone are sending the 17-nation currency down across the board.


Recently, former Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos insisted that a Greek withdrawal from the eurozone is a very real threat, even as he tried to encourage Greek citizens to accept painful austerity measures. Concerns that Greece will be unable to remain in the eurozone are on the rise. Worries are triggering fears of a domino effect as well. Once the first country leaves the eurozone, it becomes easier for other countries to bail as well, and Spain and Italy are considered prime contenders for the spots as the next dominoes to fall.

For now, the main fear is a flight from deposits at banks in countries affected by the sovereign debt crisis. A fight over eurobonds, as well as other aspects of a growth package for the eurozone is being set up, as there are expected to be very big differences between the approach of new French President Francois Hollande and the German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

At 14:03 GMT EUR/USD is down to 1.2645 from the open at 1.2684. EUR/GBP is down to 0.8042 from the open at 0.8049. EUR/JPY is down to 100.4185 from the open at 101.4300.

Bank of Japan Inaction Helps Yen

The Bank of Japan decided against taking any more action to ease at this time, and that is helping the Japanese yen. Forex traders had been expecting the Bank of Japan to ease further, in an attempt to keep the yen weak, but the BOJ offered something of a surprise following the recent downgrade by Fitch.

Citing faster economic growth, Bank of Japan officials decided to forgo additional easing measures during the most recent BOJ policy meeting. Leaders insist that public investment has increased, along with private consumption. This situation has resulted in the BOJ deciding that further easing in an attempt to stimulate the economy is not needed.

Without the specter of more easing (at least for now), Forex traders feel a little more confident about buying the yen. The yen has strengthened against its major counterparts since the announcement. Even the Fitch downgrade didn’t do much to really slow the yen — especially against struggling European currencies. Now, with the yen back in the good graces of the Forex community, there is a chance that it will become popular as a safe haven currency again.

At 13:04 GMT USD/JPY is lower at 74.4760, down from the open at 1.5761. EUR/JPY is down to 100.7045 from the open at 101.4300. GBP/JPY is down to 125.0750 from the open at 126.0100.

Palin endorses Hatch in Utah

And a hew and cry arose from Twitter.  Dispensing with Tea Party challenger Dan Liljenquist and calling Orrin Hatch “Mr. Balanced Budget,” Sarah Palin endorsed the incumbent Senator from Utah on Greta van Susteren last night:



Palin also made a lengthier argument for Hatch on her SarahPAC site early this morning:

Orrin Hatch is part of the one percent. No, not that one percent you’ve heard about. He’s part of the one percent of national politicians who I think should be reelected. Orrin Hatch is a life-long conservative whose dedication and devotion to the conservative cause and to his beloved and beautiful state of Utah is well documented. Orrin was a Utah state campaign chairman for a fledgling and failing presidential candidate deemed “too conservative” and “unelectable” by the media. Ironically, that candidate was the man who restored our country to be a “shining city on a hill” – Ronald Reagan.

When asked about Orrin Hatch, President Reagan once said: “If every member of the Senate were like Orrin Hatch, we’d be arguing over how to deal with a federal surplus, and that’s why I like to think of Orrin as ‘Mr. Balanced Budget.’ The United States has been strong enough to deter aggression and maintain the peace, in no small degree due to the efforts of Orrin Hatch. He has been a champion of those who fight for freedom.”

Free speech moment: Standing with Stacy McCain, Patterico, Liberty Chick, and Aaron Walker

I know what it’s like to find out that you’ve been targeted for violence — real violence, as in being targeted for death by an extremist who has picked out his target based on nothing more than writing about politics.  My situation got resolved, fortunately, but my life has not been quite the same since.  I had the good fortune of having friends who quietly made sure that my family had the security we needed for me to continue my work in American politics.

Looks like that time has come around for some of our friends in the blogosphere.  Aaron Walker, Patterico, Liberty Chick, and Stacy McCain have written extensively about a man named Brett Kimberlin and connections to violent political action.  I have only followed the story at a distance, and don’t hold myself out to be an expert on the subject.  The result of their investigations has prompted a flurry of legal harassment in some cases, and worse in others.  Today, the Boss Emeritus — who knows a thing or two about Unhinged reaction to free speech — rallies the blogosphere in defense of our friends:

Over the past year, Aaron Walker (who blogged as “Aaron Worthing”), Patterico, Liberty Chick, and now Stacy McCain have been targeted by convicted Speedway bomber Brett Kimberlin because they dared to mention his criminal past or assisted others who did. The late Andrew Breitbart warned about Kimberlin and company.

Open thread: The Arkansas Democratic primary

Tonight’s the big night. If you read this post last week, you already know why. The odds of O actually losing this race are somewhere south of one percent, I’d guess, but they’re not absolute zero. Remember, a poll taken in Arkansas’s Fourth Congressional District roughly 10 days ago had The One leading attorney John Wolfe by seven thin points with 17 percent still undecided. Greatest upset evah?

“I’ve raised less than $2000,” says Wolfe. “My biggest contribution was $50; my smallest was $0.44.” The money helped him drive his Ford Edge from his Nashville home over to Arkansas, and to pay for some penny apiece robo-calls. These supplemented the 3000 calls that Wolfe has made personally, “just talking to voters.”…

Two weeks ago, a convincted felon and frequent candidate named Keith Judd won 41 percent of the Democratic primary vote in West Virginia. He took seven counties away from the president. Reporters, conducting interviews at the polls, learned that voters were willing to support anyone who wasn’t Obama, no matter what he did. Vice President Biden even absolved these people.

The Judd comparison is extremely unflattering to Wolfe. He’s an upstanding citizen, and reasonable, with an “economic populist” policy agenda that could fit snugly on Dylan Ratigan’s MSNBC show. When I call Wolfe, he’s ready with a 10-minute monologue about the need to restore Glass Steagall, the unfairness of the bailouts, and the good that a transaction tax could do.

As usual, Jay Cost is thinking big picture:

Obama loses 40% of the vote in two Democratic primaries

Barack Obama had no national primary challengers in his second nomination race in most states, including Kentucky. Who knew it would still be a tough choice for voters? Kentucky voters in the Democratic primary preferred the empty slot to the empty suit, apparently: About two out of every five Democratic voters in Tuesday’s presidential primary in Kentucky chose “uncommitted” instead of voting for President Barack Obama. … “I’m at a victory celebration for ‘uncommitted’ who performed admirably,” said [state GOP chair Steve] Robertson. “I’ve never met the guy but know that he highly embarrassed Obama.” Robertson contended that the Democrats who vote most regularly — those he termed “the Democrats of Democrats” — “said ‘no’ to their president. If the Kentucky Democratic Party doesn’t get it after this race, they need to stare long and hard at the results. This shows that Obama has even more than an uphill battle to win Kentucky in the fall.” That’s not the worst of it. Obama may end up losing as many as half of Kentucky’s counties to “Uncommitted” as well: Kentucky’s vote was notable, though, for the fact that there weren’t even any other candidates on the ballot. The most the “uncommitted” option won so far this primary season was previously 21 percent in the North Carolina primary earlier this month. Kentucky looks as though it will double that number. In addition, Obama looked as though he may lose more than half of the state’s 120 counties. This follows on the heels of Obama’s embarrassing outcome in West Virginia, where he lost 41% of the vote to a felon currently residing in federal prison in Texas. Both states are big coal producers, and voters in both parties have become disgusted with Obama’s attacks on the industry that keeps their economy running, and which keeps the lights on for the rest of the country. Neither state was expected to support Obama in November, but this level of anger among rank-and-file Democrats has to have Team Obama worried about their prospects in coal-heavy Ohio and Pennsylvania, which are much more critical to their hopes for re-election. On top of the embarrassing results in Kentucky, Obama also lost 40% of the Democratic vote in Bill Clinton’s home state yesterday, too. So far, challenger John Wolfe has 41% of the vote with 67 of 75 Arkansas counties reporting. Wolfe appears to be carrying almost half of the counties in Arkansas as well, just as “Uncommitted” did in Kentucky. In 1968, a weak win in New Hampshire against a tough primary challenge was enough to convince LBJ that he couldn’t win a general election. I don’t expect Obama to retire, but barely winning states against no competition sends a very similar signal in 2012.

Pound Falls as CPI & HPI Drop

The Great Britain pound fell against the US dollar today after reports showed that inflation slowed and house prices unexpectedly declined, adding incentive for the Bank of England to stimulate the economy. The currency advanced against the euro after four days of losses. The consumer price index was 3.0 percent in April on an annual basis, down from 3.5 percent in the month before. The house price index fell 0.4 percent in March from a year ago, compared to the expected increase by 0.5 percent and the February growth by 1.0 percent. The index declined 0.6 percent on a monthly basis. The International Monetary Fund recommended the BoE to add stimulus for the UK economy. GBP/USD was down from 1.5827 to 1.5779 as of 13:13 GMT today. EUR/GBP dropped from 0.8094 to 0.8084.

Canadian Dollar Drops Against US Dollar on Risk Aversion

Risk aversion is the Forex market driver today, thanks to the Fitch downgrade of Japan. Even though equities aren’t being much affected by the latest news, currencies are. High beta currencies like the Canadian dollar are dropping, thanks to a desire for safe haven. Loonie is headed lower against the US dollar today, even though its own credit rating is remains solid. Canada retains the highest credit rating with all the agencies, but that isn’t helping the Canadian dollar today on the Forex market. The Japan downgrade has shaken things up a bit, and the US dollar is gaining against the loonie today. However, even though the Canadian dollar is down against the greenback, it is up against other high beta currencies, including the UK pound. With the situation in Europe so uncertain, it isn’t much of a surprise that European currencies have been hit harder in the wake of the Japanese credit downgrade. Canada’s currency remains stronger against some of the alternatives, especially in Europe. Additionally, Canadian dollar is up against the yen, which continues to struggle as Forex traders question the economic recovery in Japan. At 12:38 GMT USD/CAD is up to 1.0176 from the open at 1.0177. GBP/CAD is lower at 1.6047, down from the open at 1.6104. EUR/CAD is down to 1.2971 from the open at 1.3038. CAD/JPY is up to 78.48 from the open at 77.99.

Yen Slides as Fitch Downgrades Japan

The Japanese yen fell today as Fitch Ratings downgraded Japan’s sovereign credit rating because country’s actions to reduce public huge public debt are too slow. Fitch cut Japan’s long-term foreign-currency rating from AA to A+ and lowered the local-currency grade from to AA- A+. The outlooks on both rankings are negative. Some financial specialists recommended buying the yen against the dollar. They are reasoning that the yen is too attractive amid present turbulent times and the currency would bounce back rather soon. USD/JPY was up from 79.29 to 79.83 and EUR/JPY rose from 101.62 to 101.96 as of 12:08 GMT today.

WaPo/ABC poll shows dead heat between Romney, Obama …

The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll shows Barack Obama only three points ahead of Mitt Romney, 49/46, within the margin of error.  The poll also shows Obama’s advantage among women dissipating, and the President falling further behind his challenger on the economy.  All of this is rather amazing, given the manner in which Republicans keep shrinking in the sample series:

After months of aggressive campaigning on jobs and the economy, President Obama and Mitt Romney, his likely Republican challenger, are locked in a dead heat over who could fix the problem foremost on voters’ minds, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

The parity on economic issues foreshadows what probably will continue to be a tough and negative campaign. Overall, voters would be split 49 percent for Obama and 46 percent for Romney if the November election were held now. On handling the economy, they are tied at 47 percent.

Despite flare-ups over issues including contraception and same-sex marriage, more than half of all Americans cite the economy as the one concern that will decide their vote in the fall, relegating others — such as health care, taxes and the federal deficit — to single-digit status.

Confirmed: Superman might be gay

Makes sense. He’s got the build, the fashion sense, and just maybe the gaydar-pinging facial structure. And yet — no one’s sure yet that he’s the one who’s coming out. All we know is that it’s a male, that it’ll happen next month, and that he’s “one of the major iconic DC characters.”

Is there something you’d like to tell us, Batman?

Actually, no need: We already know.

So which one is it? The folks at DC Comics aren’t saying, but they do say it’s the latest effort to make sure their comics keep up with the times.

Last September, DC Comics relaunched its entire line of comic books to feature an updated look and a new lineup of LGBT superheroes: including Voodoo, an African American bisexual woman and Batwoman, an open lesbian…

“DC and (archrival) Marvel are recognizing that there is an LGBT audience that has been reading their comics for years,” said Matt Kane, associate director of entertainment and media for GLAAD. “When creating these fictional worlds it’s important to show the full diversity.”

Obamateurism of the Day

How does the private sector create jobs? Any first-year econ student could explain it: businesses make profit on products and/or services, and add jobs as they maximize profits (in other words, reach a high level of productivity) but have the opportunity/need to expand sales.  Without maximized profit, there is no pressure to expand, and therefore no job creation; otherwise, businesses improve profit performance through efficiency … which maximizes profits in the end.   John Hinderaker knows this, and he’s a lawyer, not a first-year econ student, but apparently another lawyer named Barack Obama hasn’t quite figured that out yet.  In his press conference yesterday, Obama blamed Bain for wanting to maximize profits, as opposed to, er … every other business in the real world:

WaPo: Hey, did you hear what that Mormon militia did 150 years ago?

The best part of this story is their pretext for running it, the supposedly real possibility that something that happened between Mormons and Christians 150 years ago might cause Romney to lose … Arkansas. The same state where Obama’s struggling to win the Democratic primary.

I’ve seen some impressive concern-trolling in my day, but concern-trolling and Mormon-baiting in the same piece is bravura stuff. Alternate headline: “Mitt Romney, terrorist spawn?”

On Sept. 11, 1857, a wagon train from this part of Arkansas met with a gruesome fate in Utah, where most of the travelers were slaughtered by a Mormon militia in an episode known as the Mountain Meadows Massacre. Hundreds of the victims’ descendants still populate these hills and commemorate the killings, which they have come to call “the first 9/11.”…

“There have been Fancher family reunions for 150 years, and the massacre comes up at every one of them,” said Scott Fancher, 58, who traces his lineage back to 26 members of the wagon train, which was known as the Fancher-Baker party. “The more whiskey we drunk, the more resentful we got.”

Aussie Struggles on the Forex Market

Australian dollar is struggling on the Forex market, especially against the US dollar. Concerns about what’s happening in Europe are affecting risk appetite, and sending Forex traders away from riskier assets like the Aussie and to low beta currencies like the US dollar and the Japanese yen.

Risk appetite is playing a big role in the Australian dollar’s performance today. Concerns that the Greece might actually leave the eurozone are increasing, and there are worries that Spain can’t handle its debt. This risk appetite is leading to losses by high beta currencies like the Australian dollar against low beta currencies like the US dollar and the Japanese yen. Australian dollar is, however, higher against the euro, since the euro is in such a bad state.

The Aussie’s case isn’t being helped by the situation with gold, either. Gold prices are falling right now, and the Australian dollar is a commodity currency that derives a significant amount of support from the precious metal. Aussie also gets help from China, since Australia is one of China’s major trading partners. However, China hasn’t been seeing such stellar growth recently. The result is that Aussie is having trouble finding support against some of its counterparts.

At 13:12 GMT AUD/USD is down to 0.0082 from the open at 1.0019. EUR/AUD is down to 1.2859 from the open at 1.2869. AUD/JPY is down to 79.59 from the open at 80.18.

US Dollar Gains Against Euro in Forex Trading

US dollar is heading higher against the euro in Forex trading right now, gaining as concerns about Spain and Greece come into sharper focus. Greenback is also higher against the Canadian dollar and other commodity currencies as oil prices and gold prices drop. UK pound, though, is gaining against the US dollar, as is the Japanese yen.

US dollar is turning in a mixed performance today, gaining against the euro and many commodity currencies as Forex traders look for safe haven against the volatility brought on by troubles continuing in Greece and Spain. In Greece, difficulties about forming a government, and the future of the austerity measuresagreed to for the bailout, are causing uncertainty. In Spain, the financial sector continues to struggle, and doubts remain about Spain’s ability to repay its debts. All of this is weighing on risk appetite and the euro, as well as keeping commodities down and prompting the greenback to gain against the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar

However, there are other currencies gaining against the dollar. Great Britain pound is showing some strength, and the Japanese yen is higher as risk appetite grows. Concerns are that a higher pound will hurt the British economy, while Japanese leaders fret about the economic impact of a higher yen.

At 12:30 GMT EUR/USD is down to 1.2856 from the open at 1.2901. GBP/USD is up to 1.6077 from the open at 1.6066. USD/JPY is lower at 79.8045, down from the open at 79.9900. USD/CAD is up to 1.0052 from the open at 1.0002. AUD/USD is down to 0.9974 from the open at 1.0014.

Euro at 3-Month Low as Greece May Leave Eurozone

The euro fell today, reaching the lowest level in more than three months against the US dollar, as speculation that Greece may leave the eurozone drove away investors from the shared 17-nation currency.

Greece is still unable to form a coalition government after a week of talks and negotiating. Even if the a government would be formed, the country may still leave the currency union as the Hellenic Republic is reluctant to implement austerity measures that are very unpopular among Greeks. Experts say that in the long term an exit of Greece from the eurozone may benefit both the country and the euro, but in the short term an impact could be very negative.

EUR/USD fell from 1.2901 to 1.2866 as of 8:50 GMT today, while the intraday minimum of 1.2860 was the lowest since January 23. EUR/JPY was down from 103.17 to 103.04.

Pound Gains, Threatens Economy of UK

The Great Britain pound rose today as the safe haven role of the currency helped it to profit from speculation that Greece may leave the eurozone. The strength of the sterling caused worries that it may hurt the UK economy.

The pound gains appeal as the Swiss franc loses it due to the euro-peg. Economists are worried, though, that a strong currency may harm efforts to bring the United Kingdom out of recession. Ian Stannard, the head of European currency strategy at Morgan Stanley, explained:

The U.K. economic backdrop may not be brilliant, but it’s enjoying a haven status because of the political uncertainty in the euro zone. The advantage of sterling over a traditional haven like the Swiss franc is that its asset market is more liquid. The downside is that the strength of the pound may backfire as it hurts exports.

GBP/USD rose from 1.6063 to 1.6072 and GBP/JPY went up from 128.49 to 128.70 as of 8:18 GMT today.

GBP Falls vs. USD & JPY, Gains vs. EUR Over This Week

The Great Britain pound fell against the US dollar and the Japanese yen this week as growing concerns about the health of the UK economy reduced appeal of the currency. The sterling is still perceived as refuge from Europe’s crisis, therefore it gained versus the euro.

Britain’s economy has entered a recession, significantly hurting prospects for the sterling. The Bank of England refrained from expanding stimulus during its last policy meeting, but most economists agree that the country needs quantitative easing. The pound is supported by its status of a safe haven, but such role looks tenuous considering the economic condition of Britain. Anyway, the problems of Europe allowed added to Britain’s strength against commodity currencies of countries that depend on European demand for their exports.

The pound was drifting down against the greenback and the yen since the end of March and it extended this trend for this week. The euro rose on Friday, but that did not help the shared 17-nation currency to erase its losses versus the sterling. The Canadian dollar was more successful, ending the week almost flat after falling for six consecutive trading sessions.

GBP/USD slid from 1.6133 to 1.6070 and GBP/JPY fell from 128.78 to 128.43. EUR/GBP was down from 0.8062 to 0.8033, while during the week it has reached 0.7994 — the lowest since 2008. GBP/CAD climbed from 1.6067 to 1.6201, but retreated to 1.6076 by the weekend.

Australian Dollar Falls as China Signals About Slowing Growth

The Australian dollar slipped, falling to the lowest level this year against its US peer, as negative macroeconomic data hurt prospects for Australia’s exports and general pessimistic sentiment on the Forex market reduced appeal of growth-related currencies.

The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China’s consumer price index fell from 3.6 percent in March to 3.4 percent in April, being in line with forecasts. Industrial production, on the other hand, frustrated forecasters, falling from 11.9 percent to 9.3 percent, while an increase to 12.1 percent was predicted. Other fundamental reports, including retail sales, were also worse than expected. China is the main trading partner of Australia, therefore its fundamentals have a great impact on the Aussie.

The FX market in general also was not supportive for the Australian currency as traders preferred to stick to safer investments. JPMorgan Chase & Co. announced a $2 billion loss, sparking fear among investors. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of equities slid 1 percent and posted the second week of losses.

AUD/USD was down from 1.0075 to 1.0019 — the lowest rate since December 20. AUD/JPY dropped from 80.50 to 80.08. EUR/AUD went up from 1.2829 to 1.2887.

Breitbart.com: Document supporting Elizabeth Warren’s ancestry claim doesn’t exist

The exciting conclusion to the Case of the Missing Marriage Application. Remember, after a bit of sleuthing, Michael Patrick Leahy determined that the whole 1/32 claim came down to an 1894 marriage application that had supposedly been unearthed by an amateur genealogist but which no one else had actually seen. Leahy couldn’t reach that genealogist on Friday; today, he did. Mystery solved:

Lynda Smith, the amateur genealogist who unknowingly found herself at the root of the false “Elizabeth Warren is 1/32 Cherokee” meme introduced to the media by “noted” genealogist Chris Child of the New England Historic Genealogical Society, acknowledged in an email to me this past Saturday, May 12, that her statement in a March 2006 family newsletter upon which Mr. Child based his claim of Ms. Warren’s Cherokee ancestry was made with no supporting documentation. It was, in fact, an honest mistake that Ms. Smith now acknowledges is entirely without foundation…

According to Ms. Smith:

“I am rather embarrassed about this posting of mine [on rootsweb about William J. Crawford], especially since it seems to be of some importance…. I’ve been through all papers in my Crawford file and I didn’t find who sent that Cherokee reference to me…”

Read the whole thing for an explanation of Smith’s mistake. The obvious question: Why did the professional genealogist who confirmed Warren’s ancestry for the Boston Herald rely on an amateur’s research instead of demanding to see the original documents? Investigative reporter and genealogist Thomas Lipscomb was wondering that too and sent this e-mail to Powerline:

No reputable genealogist or genealogical organization would ever use a family newsletter by an amateur genealogist as the basis for an opinion. They require direct documentation from a certified copy of a birth or marriage certificate or some other objective evidence. While family newsletters, or family web postings may provide a useful tip as to where the real documentation may be, they are just as likely to be dead wrong encrustations of family myth that may or may not be true, but can’t be proven.

While family members may find these myths of interest, professionals like the New England Historic Genealogical Society and Christopher Child, or the New York Genealogical and Biographical Society, where I have served on the Heraldry Committee, will not accept them as documentation for any kind of genealogical claim. And they certainly won’t take a chance of embarrassing themselves professionally by making a public statement on the basis of flimsy evidence they regard as little more than rumor.

Read all of that too. But wait — you’re not done reading yet. One last piece is William Jacobson’s new post chronicling his e-mail exchange with the New England Historic Genealogical Society and the curious appearance in his comments of someone who’s very interested in spinning what the NEHGS originally told the Herald. Did they really confirm that Warren is Native American, or did they merely confirm that she had an ancestor by the name of O.C. Sarah Smith whom others were claiming was Native American? Spintastic.

Via the Daily Caller, here’s Warren standing by her claim even as Scott Brown’s campaign insists that there’s nothing left of her minority status. Alternate headline: “Elizabeth Warren: I’m very proud of my Native American heritage that apparently no one can document.”

Victory: Federal judge strikes down NLRB’s rule approving “ambush” union elections

Big win, but it’ll probably take electing President Romney to make sure they don’t make it stick on the second try.

“According to Woody Allen, eighty percent of life is just showing up,” Boasberg wrote in an opinion issued today. “When it comes to satisfying a quorum requirement, though, showing up is even more important than that.”

The rule change, challenged in court by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, simplified and shortened balloting at a time when the unionized share of the workforce is falling, according to labor relations consultant Phillip Wilson. The compressed schedule could have cut the time permitted for voting in half to as few as 15 days, Wilson said.

Unions win 87 percent of elections held 15 days or less after a request, a rate that falls to 58 percent when the vote takes place after 36 to 40 days, according to a February report by Bloomberg Government.

O’s two Democratic appointees wanted to give unions a shot at quietly gathering the necessary signatures for an election and then dumping the petition on management before the company had a chance to make its case to the employees against unionization. The third member of the NLRB, Republican Brian Hayes, opposed the plan. No problem, though — Dems win 2-1, right? Nope. Not if Hayes doesn’t vote:

When the final rule came up, the NLRB’s lone Republican commissioner, Brian Hayes, did not cast a vote. He was given only a matter of hours on the NLRB’s electronic ballot system before the Democratic majority went ahead and published it that day, without anyone requesting a response.

Mr. Becker claimed that Mr. Hayes had “effectively indicated his opposition” and therefore he was “present” even though he was not, in fact, present. Basically, the NLRB argued that the quorum requirement was satisfied because there were three members in office when the rule was “approved.”

With a final vote of just 2-0 on what’s supposed to be a five-member Board, the court ruled that there was no quorum and therefore the rule was invalid. Think of Hayes’s absence as the anti-union version of those Wisconsin Democrats who fled the Capitol last year in order to deny Scott Walker a quorum to pass his collective bargaining reforms. What happens, though, now that Obama’s gone and dubiously recess-appointed a bunch of new members to the NLRB? Presumably the new members will pass the “ambush” election rule with a quorum and then the next court battle will be over whether those recess appointments were in fact valid. That suit has already been filed, in fact; if the next court throws out the recess appointments then the ambush rule stays blocked. If not, then President Romney’s our only hope.

Are you ready for Romney/Huckabee?

In hindsight, I should have used Huck instead of Christie for that joke in the Lovitz post, huh? Ah well.

Mitt needs someone who can turn out the south, reassure social cons, appeal to disaffected blue-collar voters, and serve as a media-friendly attack dog against Obama. Hucktastic?

Yes, according to several sources close to the Romney campaign, who insisted on anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the vice-presidential search, the 56-year-old Arkansan may be included in the veep mix.

To many Republicans, a ticket with a Mormon bishop and a Baptist preacher isn’t far-fetched. “In a way, it’s almost a dream ticket,” says Ed Rollins, the chairman of Huckabee’s 2008 presidential campaign. “He’s substantive and knows domestic policy, and his personality wouldn’t overshadow Romney’s.”

Breaking: Noted gay-marriage supporter finally drops cynical charade

Via Mediaite, 16 years after going on the record in support of gay marriage, The One finally decides it’s safe to reclaim his old position. (AmSpec’s James Antle tweets, “Obama may be the only person in America who supported gay marriage in 1996 but opposed it in 2011.”) His base will swoon over this, needless to say — expect the mother of all leg tingles on “Hardball” tonight — but even as someone who agrees with him, I can’t get past the pure opportunism of it. In fact, fellow gay-marriage supporter Andy Levy flags this NYT tweet in naked disgust:

Some Obama advisers were divided on decision to support same-sex marriage, but concluded his brand has been damaged enough by hedging.

That’s what it was all about: The brand, plus the political awkwardness created by Biden’s candor on “Meet the Press” this past Sunday. I used to ask whether anyone seriously believes O opposes gay marriage. Now I have to start asking whether anyone seriously believes O would have stopped feigning opposition if it was still a clear political winner for him to keep it up. His “courage” here, as in all things, is about his own reelection chances. If there’s anything for gay rights supporters to celebrate today, it’s the fact that popular opinion has shifted enough that even an opportunist as transparent as The One thinks it’s safe enough to take this position before a national election.

Romney scolds reporter after social-issues questions: “Aren’t there issues of significance that you’d like to talk about?”

Via BuzzFeed, a fun way to end Gay Marriage Day. The key bit comes at 2:15 but watch from the beginning or else you’ll miss why he’s so exasperated. This is what I was getting at in this morning’s post about why O was willing to take a calculated gamble on endorsing SSM. Simply put, he knows Romney doesn’t want to talk about it. He’s desperately trying to brand himself as the candidate of economic recovery before Obama can brand him as the candidate of waging war on women and putting dogs on car roofs and yadda yadda yadda. Remember, their big talking point against Romney, ludicrous as it is, is that he’s the most conservative nominee since Barry Goldwater. If they can bog him down in talking about hot-button social issues instead of unemployment, they can get him to play into that impression a bit. His rhetoric doesn’t have to be strident or

Negative Outlook for Australian Fundamentals Hurt Aussie

The Australian dollar dropped, reaching the lowest level against its US counterpart this year, as Forex market participants anticipate a set of poor fundamental data from the South Pacific country today.

Australian employment is expected to fall by 4,800 in April, following the increase by 44,000 in preceding month. Analysts predict that the unemployment rate will rise from 5.2 percent to 5.3 percent. The trade balance deficit widened from A$46.0 billion in February to A$49.8 billion in March, according to estimates before the government report.

The news from outside of Australia was also bad. Greece is still struggling to form a new government and the political turmoil threatens the stability of the whole eurozone. The MSCI World Index of shares slid 0.8 percent. All in all, the news was negative for the most currencies, except for safer ones.

Retails Sales Drift Down, Sterling Follows

The Great Britain pound fell today after a report showed that UK retail sale declined. The negative data ahead of the policy meeting makes market participants question what actions the central bank will take.

British Retail Consortium reported that retail sales were down 3.3 percent in April from a year ago. In March, an increase by 1.3 percent was registered. The United Kingdom face a double-dip recession and various indicators show it.

The Bank of England will hold a monetary policy meeting yesterday. Analysts are divided in their forecasts of the central bank’s decision. Many experts predict that the bank will keep its interest rates and asset purchase program unchanged. Yet easing of the policy cannot be considered improbable in the light of poor fundamentals.

Greece, Spain Weigh on Euro

Euro is down across the board today, falling as concerns about what is happening in the eurozone weigh on financial markets around the world. The financial and political turmoil in the eurozone are causing trouble, and the euro is below the 1.30 level against the US dollar as a result.

Thanks to the political turmoil in the eurozone, financial markets are in upheaval today. While the eurozone will take some getting used to Francois Hollande, the new French president, there are more immediate issues pressing right now. It appears that Syriza will be unable to form a government in Greece. Next, tries to go to PASOK and then to the President. If none of these can form a government, new elections will be held. The uncertainty regarding Greece, and whether or not it will live up to its austerity agreements, has increased quite a bit. Additionally, there is speculation that Greece will leave the currency union.

Hitting Argentina for Oil Seizure Can Hurt US Interests

Argentina’s Lower House voted on Thursday to approve the expropriation of 51 percent of YPF SA, the country’s largest oil company. Expect more international outrage in weeks to come, when President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner announces how little she plans to pay Spain’s Repsol YPF SA, the previous owner, for its stake, which it values at more than $10 billion.

Then take a deep breath and move on, because most efforts by other nations to punish Argentina promise to be ineffectual and counterproductive. That’s a job best left to the markets.

The YPF takeover is just the latest snook that Argentina has cocked at investors, creditors and policy makers around the globe: In 2007, Fernandez’s predecessor (and husband) Nestor Kirchner began skewing the country’s official inflation rate, prompting censure by the International Monetary Fund. In 2008, Fernandez nationalized $24 billion of private pension funds. In 2009, she did the same to Aerolineas Argentinas SA.

In 2010, Fernandez forced out the central bank’s governor and began tapping its reserves to pay off debt. Yet Argentina still owes the members of the Paris Club $9 billion from its infamous 2001 default, has not settled with several private debt holders, and has more cases pending with the International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes than any other nation.
High Dudgeon

Argentina’s trading partners and investors have responded to its wayward behavior with high dudgeon. Spain has threatened to cut imports of Argentinian biofuels. The European Union has delayed economic talks. The IMF has closed its office in Buenos Aires and given Argentina until September to rectify its statistics on inflation and gross domestic product. The U.S. announced in September it would vote against multilateral loans for Argentina until further notice, and last month it revoked trade preferences for Argentina because of its failure to pay arbitration awards to two U.S. companies.

Fernandez, however, has Argentine public opinion on her side. Her takeover of YPF was backed by more than 60 percent of those polled. Mixing high drama with low politics, she has repeatedly wrong-footed her weak and disorganized domestic opponents and successfully played on public resentment over the rushed privatizations of the 1990s (which included Aerolineas and the pension funds) and the huge privations that followed after the 2001 default.

Moreover, thanks partly to a commodity boom, Fernandez has kept Argentina’s economy growing and unemployment low, even as she has manipulated economic policies. She has demonstrated time and again that she doesn’t care what the outside world thinks.

That doesn’t mean Argentina should be allowed to violate international agreements and obligations with impunity. Members of the World Trade Organization should vigorously pursue their complaints about Argentina’s rising wall of import restrictions. The IMF and its members should push Argentina to bring its statistics up to snuff. Companies and their national governments should keep the pressure on Argentina to make good on damages that have been awarded.

But if such pressure is not carefully targeted, it can backfire. Consider the U.S. decision to vote against almost all multilateral loans for Argentina. The U.S. lacks the clout to make the ban stick -- at the Inter-American Development Bank, for example, no other country has followed its lead. To the extent that the move sends a signal, it is an unfortunate one: the familiar heavy hand of Uncle Sam, albeit one now holding a rather diminished stick. Moreover, some of these loans -- like one approved last November to buttress Argentina’s finance ministry -- are intended to strengthen the administrative sinews of Argentina’s public sector, whose weakness has been exploited by Fernandez. The U.S. should reconsider what seems a largely self-defeating strategy.
Argentine Borgia

The U.S. should also keep in mind that Fernandez’s political maneuvers have more in common with the Borgias than with Fidel Castro of Cuba or Hugo Chavez of Venezuela. In 1993, she and her husband supported YPF’s privatization. Now she has reversed it. At the same time, she’s also soliciting offers from foreign oil companies to operate some of YPF’s fields. She would doubtless welcome foreign investors willing to develop Argentina’s shale gas reserves -- and, given that they are the world’s third largest, inevitably they will come, regardless of Repsol’s unhappy experience and whatever outlandish terms she sets.

Eventually, her misguided economic policies may cause her government’s undoing. Argentina’s refusal to settle with its holdout creditors has cut it off from global credit markets, and left it reliant on increasingly dubious mechanisms to service its rescheduled debts. Foreign investment is shrinking. Capital flight is growing. Subsidies on utilities and transportation are increasing government deficits, and caps on rates have made it less profitable for energy companies to invest. Private economists put Argentina’s inflation at more than double the government’s stated figure of around 9 percent.

Rather than play the role of outside oppressor in Fernandez’s well-scripted narrative, the U.S. and other countries should let Argentina’s house of cards collapse of its own accord. Don’t restrict visas for Argentinian officials or try to throw it out of the Group of 20, as some have recommended; instead, rely on countries like Mexico and Brazil to apply suasion at June’s G-20 meeting, and otherwise do what can be done to strengthen Argentina’s democratic institutions.

From regional power politics and United Nations peacekeeping to nonproliferation, the U.S. has interests with Argentina that go beyond just collecting unpaid bills. The best way to advance them is to take the high road and the long view.

Financial markets brace for crunch Greek election

NOT only Greece but also Europe braced today for an election that polls indicate will decimate the two main parties and fail to produce a clear winner, sparking market fears about fresh eurozone turmoil.

In comments widely quoted by Greek newspapers on the eve of Sunday's vote, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said that if Greece's new government deviated from its commitments the country would have to "bear the consequences."

"Membership of the European Union is voluntary," the minister from the eurozone's chief contributor to Greece's 240 billion euros ($314.0 billion) in bailouts and the main proponent of European belt-tightening was quoted as saying.

Greece has written off a third of its debts, is in its fifth year running of recession, one in five workers is unemployed, its banks are in a precarious position and pensions and salaries have been slashed by up to 40 per cent.

With Portugal and Ireland also getting aid and Italy and Spain on shaky ground as well, last year there were worries of some sort of break-up of the eurozone. These fears have subsided in recent months but have not completely disappeared.

For markets, it is Greece's vote rather than France's presidential decider, also on Sunday, that "weighs heavier" in investors' minds, said Valerie Plagnol, director of research at the Credit Suisse bank.

Holger Schmieding, economist at Germany's Berenberg Bank, said there was a 40-percent risk of Greece leaving the eurozone this year, with a "high" chance that no stable government willing to implement more reforms can be formed.

Europe's press shared these worries, with Germany's Spiegel saying Greek politicians were behaving like "alchemists", while Belgium's Le Soir said it was "vital" for the eurozone that a new government is formed soon.

Germany's centre-right Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung daily said that efforts throughout "southern Europe" to cut spending and implement reforms must continue, otherwise "the crisis could escalate badly."

Election campaigning has been marked by voter anger with Greece's two main parties over the cuts that the country has been forced to promise in return for its bailouts. In June new savings of 11.5 billion euros have to be found.

"People are spending half what they used to," Panos Ioannidis, 41, the owner of a flower shop in an up-market area of Athens, told AFP. "If in June wages go down another 30 percent, we are expecting the worst."

The two main parties, the socialist Pasok and the conservative New Democracy, want to be cut more slack on the terms of the bailout, and many of the smaller parties want to tear up the agreement entirely.

"We need to break from this corrupt political system of lackeys of foreign imperialism," Petros Alachmar, 31, an activist from far-left Syriza party, one of several expected to steal votes from Pasok, told AFP late Friday.

"We have had enough of austerity measures."

Voters are also fed up corruption and cronyism, while immigration has also been an issue. The neo-Nazi Golden Dawn, completed with swastika-like emblem, may enter parliament for the first time in nearly 40 years, polls show.

The election is being fought over "a mixture of economy, immigration and national humiliation," said analyst George Sefertzis.

New Democracy is expected to win the most votes but not enough to govern alone, forcing leader Antonis Samaras into a coalition with smaller parties. If no coalition is formed, new elections could be called.

"Our place in Europe and the euro will be decided on Sunday," Pasok leader Evangelos Venizelos, 55, told a rally in Athens' central Syntagma Square, the focal point of sometimes violent protests in recent years, late Friday.

True love gets burns victim Turia through hell

  MICHAEL Hoskin looks at his partner, Turia Pitt, and says: "She's beautiful."

Don't call her a survivor because she is doing more than "surviving", he says.

She is living every day, every moment at their home on the NSW south coast.

Trapped by a bushfire during an ultra-marathon in the Kimberley last year, Ms Pitt's burns were so bad she was told by doctors she might not make it.

The 24-year-old's fitness, age and incredible will to live got her through those early days and weeks.

It is her love for Michael Hoskin that continues to carry her through her recovery from shocking burns to 64 per cent of her body.

"She doesn't want people to feel sorry for her. She just wants to get on with her life," he said.

"She's beautiful, you know. She's amazing."

Last week, Turia was forced to relive her ordeal when she gave evidence to the West Australian parliamentary inquiry examining what went wrong in the Kimberley wilderness on September 2 last year - when the Race the Planet's 41 competitors were just hours into what was supposed to be a 100km race over seven days.

The inquiry has heard chilling claims that RTP's organisers in Hong Kong were hopelessly under-prepared for such an emergency.

There were communication blackspots because they did not have the proper satellite phones.

WA's Fire and Emergency Services Authority said it was not notified of the race until it was too late, contradicting RTP's claims that all relevant services were given the "necessary approvals".

The authority said that in the middle of a worse-than-normal bushfire season, it would have had the race moved, or even cancelled - had it known about it.

Competitors were briefed about the dangers of snake bite and crocodiles - but not bushfires. Yet organisers knew there were fires on or near the course.

Course director Carlos Garcia Prieto had been out replacing pink plastic tape marking some of the route after it was burnt.

"The risk of harm to competitors in these circumstances is submitted to be simply overwhelming," solicitor Greg Walsh, acting for Ms Pitt and four other runners, said in his submission.

Turia knew little of this when she got off the plane at the Emma Gorge landing strip at the El Questro station at 7.50am that morning with the other runners.

She had the world at her feet. Born in Tahiti, she grew up in Ulladulla, on the NSW south coast, where she met Michael at school. They hooked up three years ago.
Turia Pitt at the West Australian parliamentary inquiry.

TURIA paid her way at university to qualify as a mining engineer doing odd jobs including modelling.

Michael quit the police before they moved to WA last year, where both worked in the mining industry.

He said his super-fit girlfriend wanted to take part in the RTP ultra-marathon but couldn't afford the $1600 entry fee.

The day before the event, organisers contacted Turia and some others and let them enter free because there were not enough competitors and the race was to be filmed.

The inquiry heard from Mr Pietro that about 11am on race day, he was told there was a fire coming towards them and it would reach the second checkpoint within two hours.

Despite this, no runners were warned or held back at the checkpoint.

Competitors recall Turia being "chirpy, happy and talkative" as she left checkpoint two.

Soon after, about 1.30pm, when she and five others reached the top of Salerno Gorge, they heard what was described as the roar of a road train.
Turia Pitt's burns were so bad she was told by doctors she might not make it.

TO their horror, they realised it was a massive fire with the wind behind it. They couldn't outrun the flames or climb to safety.

A "really scared" Ms Pitt began to cry. She stopped and covered her head with her jacket because there was "nowhere else to go", she told the inquiry.

"It just got hotter and hotter and hotter, and I couldn't stand it any more so I jumped up and tried to run and that's when I got burnt," she said.

Fellow competitors heard her scream, including Kate Sanderson, who was already badly burnt. Ms Sanderson, 35, had huddled in a crevice but was burnt when she stood up to try to put out the flames on her jumper.

It took almost four hours for a helicopter to arrive and the other four runners - Michael Hull, 44, Shaun Van Der Merwe, 30, his father, Martin, 56, and Hal Benson, 37 - have been credited with saving the two lives.

They used their jackets and space blankets to shield them from the sun and pooled their water. But the only painkillers they had were paracetamol.

Turia was flown to a Sydney burns unit, lost her fingers and thumb on her right hand, spent five months in hospital and will need at least 10 more operations.

But Mr Hoskin, 27, who left work to care for her because she cannot dress, wash or feed herself, says she feels lucky because she still has the fingers on her left hand.

"She's got crazy energy," Mr Hoskin said.

"She loves the outdoors, she loves the ocean."

Solicitor Mr Walsh, who is preparing to sue RTP, says Turia Pitt is one of the bravest people he has met.

With huge medical bills, the only support Turia and Kate Sanderson received from RTP was a card, some emails and chocolates.

"The degree of negligence is simply overwhelming," Mr Walsh said.

'Too fat to fly' passenger sues airline

  * A PASSENGER who was told she was "too fat to fly" has announced is suing the airline that told her she would have to buy a second seat.

Kenlie Tiggeman, from the US, said Southwest Airlines’ controversial "Customers of Size" policy is discriminatory towards the obese and claims the airline ignored her “constitutional rights”.

She’s not after a payout but wants an industry-wide standard to be put in place.

“'We need to know if we need one seat or two, because this eyeballing happening at the gate is incredibly discriminatory, and it's so unnecessary,” she said.

Ms Tiggeman and her mum Joan Charpentier were waiting during a stopover at Dallas Airport last year when she claims they were singled out by a Southwest Airlines employee because of their weight.

"I asked him what the weight restrictions were and he said that he didn't know, just that we were too heavy to fly,” Ms Tiggeman told MSNBC. “Too fat to fly."

She said that she was humiliated by the incident, which developed into a 45-minute confrontation over the airline's weight restrictions in front of other passengers.

The women say during the public stoush with the Southwest employee he even told them they could board the plane but only if they sat next to a third overweight person in a row.

Ms Tiggeman claims she can fit comfortably into airline seats.

A supervisor eventually intervened and they were able to board their flight without any special conditions. They also received flight vouchers and an apology, which Ms Tiggeman has recorded on her blog.

Southwest has already taken flack over the policy with high-profile and sizeable film director Kevin Smith also told he was too fat to fly.

Fergie's secret film could land her in jail

Sarah Ferguson tried in absentia in Turkey
* Charges relate to secret film of orphanages
* Maximum sentence is 22 years in prison

A TURKISH court has begun a trial against Britain's Duchess of York for allegedly taking part in the secret filming of orphanages in the country, the state-run news agency says.

The Anadolu Agency says Sarah Ferguson, who is being tried in absentia, faces charges of going "against the law in acquiring footage and violating privacy" of five children. If convicted, she could receive a maximum sentence of 22 years in prison.

Ferguson, the former wife of Prince Andrew, allegedly made an undercover trip to Turkey in 2008 during which two state-run orphanages outside Ankara were secretly filmed for the British ITV program Duchess and Daughters: Their Secret Mission.

Anadolu quoted Ferguson's lawyer Cansu Sahin as saying the duchess is seeking an out-of-court settlement.

Teen drowned in Bali 'wanted just one last swim'

THE grief-stricken family of drowned Central Coast teenager Jack McCabe tearfully told how his quest to dive "as deep as he could go" cost him his life in Bali.

On a family holiday, they left their hotel for a day trip snorkelling in a remote bay off the island of Nusa Penida.

"We were having such a beautiful time," said Jack's mother. "We had all been snorkelling around for an hour together. He knew his stuff, had done marine studies and was always in the water with his friends at home.

"He knew the safety procedures and we discussed them when we were all out together. Jack kept showing us how deep he could go. He just wanted one last swim.

"We were all watching him and then took our eyes off him for a couple of minutes and the next we knew some local divers who were in the bay brought him up.

"He just went too deep, there was no sign he had hit his head or anything," she explained, dismissing reports that he was knocked out after hitting his head against a boat.

"They couldn't get him on the boat so I jumped in," explained Jack's father John McCabe. "His mum started CPR and I was doing compression but there was no one to help us, no one spoke English and our 12-year-old, daughter who had seen it all happen, was screaming."

After about 30 minutes of trying to revive their son with CPR with no assistance from the local boat operators, they took him to the beach and continued to try everything to bring him back.

"I kept telling my husband, he's gone,'' said Mrs McCabe. "We couldn't communicate with anyone, there was no one to help us. When we took him to the local clinic it was filthy and there were no facilities,'' she said.

Now, the family are planning to return home with their beloved son's body.

"We are not leaving without him, we don't know when his body will be released and we are not leaving without him, we just want to go home,'' said Mrs McCabe from her hotel in Legian Bali.

Trapped on the island for four hours before transport could be arranged to take them back to Bali, they finally arrived at Bali's Sanglah hospital seven hours after the accident.

Jack was a popular boy and keen on his sports.

"He really knew what he was doing. He was always watching those shows on television and would come down at night with his laptop and show me things he had found on the internet about diving and underwater studies. He knew and we knew what to do and how to snorkel safely, how to equalize, we think he just dove down too deep and couldn't get his air.''

"The family's nightmare continues as they battle with their UK based insurance company who told them it was Friday afternoon in the UK when they called and they would not be able to provide immediate assistance.

"The Australian consulate is trying to help but we still don't know when we will be able to take him home and we are not leaving," explained his grieving father.

The couple spoke of the pain their twelve-year-old daughter suffered watching the whole thing unfold, losing her brother in a remote island bay. Their older daughter waits at home, distraught.

"We just want to be together and we can't get him home.''

The medical examiner at Sanglah made a statement that the boy's injuries were consistent with drowning.

The family says he never surfaced and waved, he had no injuries apart from the scratch on his nose. They spent seven long hours with him before finally reaching the hospital in Bali far too late to change the outcome and save their beloved son.

Local divers claim he may have been a victim of shallow water blackout, a syndrome that often affects experienced divers when they free dive and take in too much air before going down.

"Technically it is like hyperventilating, when the body has too much carbon dioxide and the brain doesn't register. It can cause a black out and results in drowning,'' said Dewi Kartika, a local dive expert yesterday.

The family agree this is probably what happened. They have not requested an autopsy, they simply want to go home with their boy and grieve together with their family.

"We can't leave the room, we can't stop crying, our daughter is not okay, she saw it all.''

Jack McCabe lies waiting in the local morgue while consular officials attempt to sort out the red tape so that the family can finally return from the Bali holiday that started so well and ended in tragedy.

I'm so sexy I can still pull $100,000 on runway

CANADIAN supermodel Linda Evangelista has told a court she can still command about $100,000 to walk a runway, though her career has slowed since its 1980s and '90s heyday.

In an unusual peek into high fashion in Manhattan Family Court, Evangelista took the witness stand to begin telling her side of her child support standoff with French billionaire Francois-Henri Pinault.

But their five-year-old boy didn't come up in Evangelista's brief testimony; she's expected to continue testifying on Monday.

Rather, answering questions from her lawyer, the high-flying model who once famously said she and her peers "don't wake up for less than $10,000 a day" sketched a portrait of herself as a woman whose first job - harvesting cherries on a farm in her Canadian hometown - paid $10 a day. She did that work at the age of 12 to earn money for a bicycle, she said.

She said she had pounded the pavement in two continents to get her start in modelling and felt pressured into getting her now-signature haircut, she said.

When she first got her famous cut in the late 1980s on advice from some fashion heavy-hitters, she said she cried and organisers cancelled 16 of about 20 fashion shows she was about to do. But soon, she added: "I had every Vogue cover around the world ... and then people came around and decided they like the short hair."

Asked about her career now, the 46-year-old model paused.

"I'm active," she said in a calm, careful voice.

"I would like to work."

Evangelista is on the latest cover of Italian Vogue, recently did a roughly $US90,000 ($88,000) advertising shoot, and still gets some runway requests, including a 2010 Paris show she had to turn down for a court date - ultimately cancelled - in the custody battle, said Evangelista, dressed for court in a tailored white skirt, stylishly boxy grey linen jacket with tan collar and cuffs, and tan spike-heeled pumps.

But her lawyer, William Beslow, has said Evangelista's roughly $1.8 million-a-year income took a dive last year after a contract with L'Oreal ended, and that's why she's asking a court to order Pinault to chip in for son Augustin's expenses. She says she spends $46,000 a month on bodyguards, 24-hour-a-day nannies and other care for the boy, known as Augie.

Pinault, who is CEO of luxury-brands powerhouse PPR and now the husband of actress Salma Hayek, says he has offered for years to pay Evangelista child support, but she responded with the lawsuit. His lawyer, David Aronson, has termed the possibility of a $46,000-a-month child-support bill "just ridiculous".

Pinault was grilled earlier on Friday about his own spending, including the roughly $62,000 in clothes, $100,000 on a watch and half-share in a $250,000 sports car he bought himself in 2010. Holidays cost him $200,000 that year, and upkeep on the garden at his Paris apartment about $45,000, he said.

His testimony pulled back a curtain on personal difficulties, as well as financial details. He said he had postponed formally recognising Augie as his son for some months in 2007 because he and Hayek were caught up in concern about her own pregnancy with their daughter, Valentina. For a time, they were told the baby would have Down syndrome, he said.

"The situation was very, very complicated. We almost lost the baby," he testified.

Pinault, now 49, and Evangelista dated over about four months in 2005 and 2006. He said they spent only about seven days together in all. Augie was born in October 2006.

Pinault also has two children by a previous marriage.

PPR owns Gucci, Yves St Laurent and other high-end brands. Forbes recently estimated his family's net worth at $13 billion.

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/entertainment/celebrity/evangelista-sues-billionaire-for-child-support/story-e6frfmqi-1226347546703#ixzz1u05oEYty